Analysis on the overall planning and development prospect of China's UHV industry in 2017

June 22, 2017 source: China industry information network

China's UHV has gone through the "1253 horizontal, vertical and one ring" plan, the "four cross and five direct" plan for air pollution prevention and control, and the "1355 cross and eight direct" plan. According to the State Grid news, Shu Yinbiao stressed that in terms of power grid development, he proposed to approve the "West vertical" and "middle vertical" projects as soon as possible, and include the key projects of UHV main grid construction in North China, East China and central China into the "13th five year" power planning; In the first half of the year, the fourth UHVDC transmission from northern Shaanxi to Hubei and Sichuan was approved, and the schemes of Baihetan Hydropower, the upper reaches of Jinsha River and Qinghai clean energy transmission were identified as early as possible. China's relatively clear phased power grid planning highlights the overall planning effect and efficiency.

In recent years, a lot of extra high voltage lines have been started

Source: public information, intellectual research and consultation

The construction of a strong smart grid and the planning of global energy interconnection are inseparable from UHV. At the 2009 International Conference on UHV transmission technology, State Grid officially released the Research Report of "building a strong smart grid". According to the State Grid, strong smart grid is based on UHV grid as the backbone grid, which is divided into three stages to promote the construction of "strong smart grid". According to the strategic concept of the global energy Internet development cooperation organization, the future development of the global energy Internet will be divided into three development stages: "UHV grid + smart grid + clean energy", namely, intra continent interconnection, inter continent interconnection and global interconnection. By 2050, the global clean energy power generation will reach 66 trillion kwh, accounting for about 90% of the global total power generation.

Strong smart grid construction has entered the third stage

Global energy Internet based on UHV

2) Domestic: bottleneck of UHV growth

China's grid investment market space is about 500 billion yuan. The investment amount of State Grid increased from 250 billion yuan in 2008 to nearly 500 billion yuan in 2016. In eight years, the investment amount doubled, and the annual compound growth rate reached 9%. In recent years, the investment amount of State Grid has remained above 450 billion yuan, the growth rate of investment amount has decreased year by year, and the market space has remained at 500 billion yuan left and right.

The market space of China's power grid is about 500 billion yuan

The bottleneck of the growth of UHV investment is prominent. The annual compound growth rate of UHV cumulative investment was about 20% before 2012, and it began to grow rapidly in 2014. In 2015, the growth rate exceeded 50%, and the growth rate peaked. In 2016, the growth rate of UHV cumulative investment dropped more than 20 percentage points year on year. The growth rate of UHV cumulative investment is similar to that of high-speed rail and nuclear power industries.

The growth rate of UHV cumulative investment began to decline when it peaked

2015 is the year of UHV construction. After the shutdown of nuclear power, the industry has a large debt. In 2015, the number of units started to restart reached 6, with a growth rate of 100%. In 2016, the number of units started to start nuclear power dropped to 2, with a growth rate of - 67%. From the commencement of one UHV in 2013 to the commencement of six UHV projects in 2015, ushering in the year of UHV construction, the growth rate of the commencement routes has rebounded to the top, with an average annual decline of more than 100% in 2015-2016.

The debt of nuclear power start-up units is large, and the number of start-up units in 2016 is small

2015 is the big year of UHV line construction